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@rb_tweets
07:55 PM
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High-probability bonds
Near-certain Polymarket outcomes ranked by annualized yield.
64
Markets
485.9%
Avg APY
7874.9%
Best APY
14
Expiring Today
≥90%
≥95%
≥97%
≥99%
|
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24h
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Month
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→
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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
* featured
99.5%
1188.0%
4h left
99.5%
1188.0%
4h left
$4.0M
$2.4M
→
→
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on March 17?
96.0%
>9999%
0h left
96.0%
>9999%
0h left
$22K
$185
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→
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 17?
98.0%
>9999%
0h left
98.0%
>9999%
0h left
$38K
$98
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→
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 17?
98.8%
>9999%
0h left
98.8%
>9999%
0h left
$178K
$7K
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→
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
99.5%
>9999%
0h left
99.5%
>9999%
0h left
$33K
$6K
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Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?
98.0%
7874.9%
2h left
98.0%
7874.9%
2h left
$110
$97
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→
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 17?
100.0%
5608.4%
0h left
100.0%
5608.4%
0h left
$109K
$83K
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→
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs
100.0%
5608.4%
0h left
100.0%
5608.4%
0h left
$99K
$287K
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→
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
99.5%
1890.8%
2h left
99.5%
1890.8%
2h left
$73K
$35K
→
→
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 19?
95.0%
1046.0%
44h left
95.0%
1046.0%
44h left
$30K
$30K
→
→
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18?
98.6%
641.9%
20h left
98.6%
641.9%
20h left
$62K
$32K
→
→
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Pandora Kris - Game 1 Winner
99.7%
609.0%
4h left
99.7%
609.0%
4h left
$175
$10K
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Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 16 above $170?
95.9%
526.2%
72h left
95.9%
526.2%
72h left
$171
$9K
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→
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?
98.5%
475.1%
28h left
98.5%
475.1%
28h left
$25K
$24K
→
→
Dota 2: 1win vs Power Rangers (BO3) - CCT Playoffs
100.0%
406.5%
1h left
100.0%
406.5%
1h left
$66K
$15K
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→
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
100.0%
406.5%
1h left
100.0%
406.5%
1h left
$23K
$38K
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→
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 19?
98.0%
405.6%
44h left
98.0%
405.6%
44h left
$200
$9K
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→
Games Total: O/U 3.5
100.0%
263.8%
2h left
100.0%
263.8%
2h left
$35K
$64K
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→
LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B
100.0%
263.8%
2h left
100.0%
263.8%
2h left
$1.7M
$572K
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LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner
100.0%
263.8%
2h left
100.0%
263.8%
2h left
$708K
$363K
→
→
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on March 20?
98.5%
202.6%
68h left
98.5%
202.6%
68h left
$50
$10K
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→
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner
100.0%
188.2%
2h left
100.0%
188.2%
2h left
$60K
$38K
→
→
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on March 20?
98.6%
182.7%
68h left
98.6%
182.7%
68h left
$160
$10K
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→
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 18?
99.7%
153.2%
20h left
99.7%
153.2%
20h left
$53K
$44K
→
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 24?
97.5%
134.1%
164h left
97.5%
134.1%
164h left
—
$9K
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Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close over 20,750 on Friday of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?
99.0%
129.0%
72h left
99.0%
129.0%
72h left
$1
$9K
→
→
Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close over 21,000 on Friday of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?
99.3%
91.8%
72h left
99.3%
91.8%
72h left
$76
$9K
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Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close over 21,250 on Friday of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?
99.4%
79.5%
72h left
99.4%
79.5%
72h left
$152
$9K
→
→
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 23?
99.0%
66.4%
140h left
99.0%
66.4%
140h left
$404
$9K
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Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 16 above $2.00?
99.6%
48.8%
72h left
99.6%
48.8%
72h left
—
$9K
→
→
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 18?
99.9%
43.7%
20h left
99.9%
43.7%
20h left
$25K
$33K
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→
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 16 above $50?
99.7%
36.6%
72h left
99.7%
36.6%
72h left
$1
$10K
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Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
98.7%
36.5%
13d left
98.7%
36.5%
13d left
$62K
$57K
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→
Will Pete Ricketts be the Republican nominee for Senate in Nebraska?
95.5%
31.2%
55d left
95.5%
31.2%
55d left
$11
$10K
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Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close over 20,500 on Friday of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?
99.8%
30.5%
72h left
99.8%
30.5%
72h left
$182
$9K
→
→
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 19?
99.9%
29.9%
44h left
99.9%
29.9%
44h left
$69K
$32K
→
→
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18?
100.0%
21.8%
20h left
100.0%
21.8%
20h left
$81K
$108K
→
→
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 18?
100.0%
21.8%
20h left
100.0%
21.8%
20h left
$66K
$125K
→
→
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 18?
100.0%
21.8%
20h left
100.0%
21.8%
20h left
$121K
$115K
→
→
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 18?
100.0%
21.8%
20h left
100.0%
21.8%
20h left
$117K
$73K
→
→
Will Dortmund finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?
97.0%
15.6%
71d left
97.0%
15.6%
71d left
—
$10K
→
→
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of March?
99.6%
11.8%
14d left
99.6%
11.8%
14d left
$74
$10K
→
→
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 19?
100.0%
9.9%
44h left
100.0%
9.9%
44h left
—
$10K
→
→
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
95.5%
8.7%
196d left
95.5%
8.7%
196d left
$29K
$25K
→
→
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?
99.4%
8.2%
29d left
99.4%
8.2%
29d left
$52K
$76K
→
→
Will the San Antonio Spurs make the NBA Playoffs?
99.6%
5.6%
26d left
99.6%
5.6%
26d left
$20
$9K
→
→
Will Drake release an album in 2026?
96.9%
4.1%
—
96.9%
4.1%
—
—
$943
→
→
Will Hyperliquid reach $42 by December 31, 2026?
97.3%
3.5%
289d left
97.3%
3.5%
289d left
$2K
$10K
→
→
Murcia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pol Martin Tiffon
100.0%
3.3%
134h left
100.0%
3.3%
134h left
$44K
$70K
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→
Miami Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Billy Harris
100.0%
3.2%
138h left
100.0%
3.2%
138h left
$187K
$279K
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→
Miami Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Colton Smith
100.0%
3.2%
138h left
100.0%
3.2%
138h left
$142K
$398K
→
→
Morelos: Alafia Ayeni vs Keegan Smith
100.0%
3.1%
140h left
100.0%
3.1%
140h left
$32K
$96K
→
→
Miami Open, Qualification: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luca Van Assche
100.0%
2.7%
162h left
100.0%
2.7%
162h left
$337K
$268K
→
→
Miami Open, Qualification: Kimberly Birrell vs Yue Yuan
100.0%
2.7%
162h left
100.0%
2.7%
162h left
$148K
$642K
→
→
Murcia: Felix Gill vs Filip Pieczonka
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
$66K
$94K
→
→
Miami Open, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Donna Vekic
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
$30K
$112K
→
→
Miami Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Diane Parry
100.0%
2.7%
165h left
100.0%
2.7%
165h left
$31K
$98K
→
→
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
100.0%
2.7%
165h left
100.0%
2.7%
165h left
$40K
$72K
→
→
Morelos: Miguel Tobon vs Juan Pablo Ficovich
100.0%
2.6%
166h left
100.0%
2.6%
166h left
$66K
$119K
→
→
Will Drake release a new song in 2026?
98.0%
2.5%
—
98.0%
2.5%
—
—
$950
→
→
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?
98.8%
1.5%
289d left
98.8%
1.5%
289d left
$51K
$23K
→
→
ChatGPT Outage by March 31?
100.0%
1.4%
13d left
100.0%
1.4%
13d left
$26K
$12K
→
→
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?
99.5%
0.7%
289d left
99.5%
0.7%
289d left
$22K
$11K
→
→
Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch?
99.1%
0.5%
654d left
99.1%
0.5%
654d left
$25K
$41K
64 of 64 markets
APY = (1−p)/p × 365/d